According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 6 insider accounts collectively invested $395k in the "US-Iran Ceasefire Will Be Reached" outcome. Among them, $185k was invested in the "Ceasefire by March 31st" and $99k was invested in the "Ceasefire by April 30th". Currently, the probability of "Ceasefire by March 31st" is 13%.
Within these 6 accounts, 4 accounts registered in February this year had previously made a cumulative profit of $933k by accurately predicting Iran's military strike;
1 account registered on the eve of last year's US-Israel joint strike against Iran had made a profit of $784k by accurately predicting the US strike against Iran in 2025, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and the assassination of Qasem Soleimani;
1 account had been dormant for 6 months after accurately predicting the US strike against Iran in 2025 and making a profit of $112k. It recently returned and invested $8100 in this month's ceasefire. It had a total investment of $37k in the 2025 Iran strike event.
Accounts:
0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9
0xa4eb52229991c074bc560f825bf2776d77acd010
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e
Total Investment: $395k
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