Is the "5-Day Ceasefire Period" Over, Leading to the US's "Deadly Strike" on Iran This Weekend?

BlockBeats News, March 26th, former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his own social media platform, truthsocial, warning Iran to take the negotiations seriously, or it may be too late. "Iran should get serious as soon as possible. Once the negotiation window passes, there will be no turning back, and the consequences will be unimaginable!"

This week, a series of responses from Iran have confirmed that Trump's earlier announcement on March 23rd of a "complete reconciliation with Iran" was probably another lie, or at least not as reliable. Perhaps Trump hoped that Iran would "be sensible" and give him a way out, but Iran clearly did not give face. The market has had a few days of respite, but the "5-day ceasefire agreement" is about to expire.

According to AXIOS, two U.S. officials and two knowledgeable sources revealed that the Pentagon is developing a military plan for a "deadly strike" against Iran, which may include the use of ground forces and launching a large-scale bombing operation.

This timeframe also aligns with Trump's operational principle of "avoiding acting during U.S. stock market hours," which he has followed many times before. The kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro and the assassination of Iranian leader Khamenei have followed this pattern.

According to Polybeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, several addresses recently believed that the U.S. would enter Iran by April. Today, two smart money accounts collectively invested $43,300 in "Will the U.S. military enter Iran before April," buying "Yes," with a 20% probability when they entered the trade.

Yesterday, two new addresses collectively invested $7,300 in "Will the U.S. military invade Iran before April," buying "Yes," with a 12% probability when they entered the trade. One new address invested $15,200 in "Will the U.S. military enter Iran before April," buying "Yes," with a 15% probability when they entered the trade.

At the time of writing, the probability of "U.S. military entering Iran before April" on Polymarket is currently reported as 25%.