Analysis: Bitcoin Bear Market Enters Late Stage, $64,000 Key Support Level

BlockBeats News, March 26th, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin once again fell below $70,000. Multiple on-chain and technical indicators show that the current bear market is entering a later stage. On-chain data-wise, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped below 0.25, in the "Hope/Fear Zone." CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader pointed out that this means that about 40% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is at a loss, coupled with the Fear Greed Index dropping to 15, indicating "extreme fear," reflecting "pain and uncertainty." He added that if NUPL were to rebound above 0.25, it would signal entering the optimistic zone, a transition historically synchronized with price momentum strengthening.

Glassnode stated that the 7-day average of Relative Unrealized Loss has stabilized at 15%, saying that historically, resolving this level of embedded losses requires time, further price declines, or a sustained influx of significant fresh capital within a compressed time frame. In addition, Bitcoin's entity-adjusted realized profits have decreased from a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025 to less than $100 million now, a drop of over 96%. Glassnode called this "further evidence of demand exhaustion" and a "textbook characteristic of the transition to the late stages of a bear market."

Regarding key price levels, Bitcoin has been range-bound recently, with support at $64,000 and resistance at $72,000. Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is struggling to hold the 1-week to 1-month holding cost basis of $70,200, but the accumulation of buy orders at this level is not strong enough. The probability of breaking below this level should not be ignored until a more solid support from buyers is established. The main lower support is around Bitcoin's realized price of about $54,000, while upper resistance is at the 1- to 3-month holding cost basis of $82,200 and a short-term concentration zone above $84,000. Technical analyst CryptoPatel stated that Bitcoin's recent rise to $76,000 is just a lower high, with the high-timeframe structure "pointing lower," and below $50,000 is the next area worth paying attention to.