The new account, confident in the imminent fall of the Iranian regime this month, has increased its position by $107,000, currently sitting at a loss of $170,000.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, a newly reported account on the prediction market Polymarket has been continuously increasing its position by $107k in the past week, buying "Yes" on "Will the Iranian regime collapse this month." Currently, the probability of this outcome is only 2%, and the total unrealized loss of this account has reached $170k.
Recently, U.S. President Trump claimed to have engaged in a "productive dialogue" with the Iranian side aimed at delaying military strikes. However, he explicitly stated to the media that the negotiation was with a "respected leader," not Iran's current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf later categorically denied this claim. Currently, Iran's national power remains in the hands of the clerical and military establishment led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump has failed to establish communication with the true ruling core, indirectly confirming that the regime has not shown any signs of compromise or relinquishing power.
With high-level members of the Iranian regime frequently targeted in military strikes, following the assassination of the previous Supreme Leader, former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani briefly took over as the de facto ruler, but he was killed in an airstrike on March 17. Currently, former Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan has been appointed as the new Secretary to fill the power vacuum. Compared to Larijani, Dehghan has a strong military background but is widely seen as lacking Larijani's political finesse to delicately balance the various factions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, hardliners, and pragmatic politicians in extreme crises.
Account:
0xa2536f292681daff7a048ab51fab6bdf81ecc48f
Total Investment: $470k
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