QCP: Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Risk Assets, Bitcoin Exhibits "Resilience" and May Transition to a Non-Traditional Risk Asset Position

BlockBeats News, March 24th, QCP's latest market view pointed out that despite Trump's final ultimatum on the Iran situation not developing as expected, coupled with ongoing Middle East conflicts, the market briefly factored in higher geopolitical risks. However, as the US delayed action and signaled "progress in dialogue," risk assets stabilized temporarily.

The crypto market showed some resilience. Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000 over the weekend, but the overall decline was significantly weaker than in previous "risk-off" stages, with no apparent liquidity-driven sell-off. Analysts believe this may be related to a decrease in market leverage, also implying that Bitcoin is gradually moving away from being solely a "high-beta risk asset" in trading nature.

On a macro level, the US debt has exceeded $39 trillion. Against the backdrop of potential fiscal expansion, emerging signs of stagflation, and limited central bank policy space, some market participants are reconsidering Bitcoin as a "neutral value export."

Geopolitical factors have further strengthened this logic. Iran has proposed settling transactions in RMB in exchange for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, envisioning an alternative settlement path. While this has not yet materialized, in the current dollar-dominated system, it has opened up discussions on alternative settlement routes. Analysts believe that if the conflict persists, Bitcoin's narrative of "permissionless settlement" may regain market attention.