11 Suspected Addresses Firm on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Pre-Trump's "TACO" Declaration, Totaling Nearly $150,000

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 48 hours following Trump's statement yesterday that the US had "very good and productive talks" with Iran, 11 new accounts have collectively invested over $150k certain that there will be a "US-Iran ceasefire by March 31st / April 15th / April 30th", with the current probability of a ceasefire by March 31st at 14%.

Out of these 11 accounts, 7 have no on-chain interaction history, while one account has only 2 past transactions (previously accurately predicting a US strike on Iran and profiting $66.5k), has not yet taken profits, and holds $50k worth of the US-Iran ceasefire "yes" position.

In the first 2 hours before the US stock market opened this week, Trump posted on Truth Social claiming that the US had "very good and productive talks" with Iran, using this as an opportunity to announce a 5-day delay in military strikes on Iranian power and energy facilities. However, just 1 hour later, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and the Iranian Foreign Ministry publicly clarified that there had been absolutely no communication with Trump or the US side and directly called this "fake news" intended to manipulate the financial market.

Faced with the swift rebuttal from the Iranian side, Trump later reached out to the media to clarify that he had not communicated with the Iranian Supreme Leader but had engaged with a "respected leader." Nevertheless, Iranian officials led by Ghalibaf promptly reiterated their denial, emphasizing that Iran has no representatives in direct or indirect talks with the US, completely refuting the notion of any "communication."

Accounts:
0x0a05ad778decfdb49eba1be628b4938691535de2
0xe09bec5e9c4b3d86734f34148a6af052acb1d723
0x0b6d597962e5af2c5b193111791d5e3d58f845ff
0x302d4c75b52c80a50188ffcb460d2d2c0f8d6d6f
0x6bb09f8a0d2ffda1b5d5b4dc5867aa5fe22d31c4
0x972F2e7769595537f33375987118396D692ff90E
0x91710b66a05f2ea3614dd50abe7192c7f90ac3e0

Total Investment: $150k
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