Polymarket Experiences Unusual Trading Activity Ahead of Trump's Tweet, S&P Sees Unusual Volume Alongside Oil Futures

BlockBeats News, March 24th. On Monday, Trump stated in a post that the US and Iran had engaged in a "very good and productive dialogue" to resolve the Middle East war. However, prior to this, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, 10 large recent new accounts had already bet big that the US and Iran would cease fire by March 31st or April 15th, with a total investment of about $160,000. If a ceasefire is achieved by the end of the month, they stand to profit over $1 million. After Trump's post, these accounts are already up over $300,000.

One of these accounts had previously predicted a US strike on Iran, earning over $85,000. Now, they are predicting a ceasefire, leading to questions from the public about the scale of their investments, timing, and past performance, raising suspicions of whether they are insiders with undisclosed diplomatic information—individuals related to the US-Iran political sphere who have access to undisclosed diplomatic progress information.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 E-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures saw isolated abnormal volume spikes approximately 15 minutes before Trump's post, with no clear catalyst in the market at that time. Following Trump's statement release, S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5% in pre-market trading, while crude oil futures dropped nearly 6%. Anyone who bought stock futures and shorted oil futures at that moment could make a huge profit within minutes. The SEC and CME Group both declined to comment.

On Monday, Polymarket announced an upgrade to its insider trading rules, expressly prohibiting trading on stolen confidential information, trading on illegal insider tips, and trading when users have the ability to influence event outcomes. (Jinse)