Abnormal Betting Activity on Polymarket Prior to Trump's Tweet, S&P and Crude Oil Futures Simultaneously Experienced Abnormal Volume

BlockBeats News, March 24th, Trump stated in a post on Monday that the US and Iran had a "very good and productive dialogue" on ending the Middle East war. However, prior to this, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, there were already 10 large new accounts that placed significant bets that the US and Iran would cease fire by March 31st or April 15th, with a total wager of around $160,000. If a ceasefire is achieved by the end of the month, they will profit over $1 million. After Trump's post, these accounts have already seen over $300,000 in unrealized gains.

One of the accounts had previously bet over $85,000 on a US strike against Iran and made a profit. Now, they are betting on a ceasefire. The scale and timing of the bets, along with their past performance, have led outsiders to question whether they are insiders with undisclosed diplomatic information—individuals related to the US-Iran political sphere who have access to undisclosed diplomatic developments.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 E-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures experienced isolated anomalous volume around 15 minutes before Trump's post, with no clear catalyst in the market at the time. Following Trump's statement, S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5% in pre-market trading, while crude oil futures dropped nearly 6%. Anyone who bought stock futures and shorted oil futures at that moment could make huge profits within minutes. The SEC and CME Group both declined to comment.

Polymarket announced an upgrade to its insider trading rules on Monday, explicitly prohibiting trading based on stolen confidential information, trading on illegal insider tips, and trading when users have the ability to influence the outcome of an event. (Jinse)