Trump Announces Pause in Iran Conflict, Bitcoin Temporarily Surges 4%, But Derivatives Data Shows Lack of Long Positions

BlockBeats News, March 24th. According to Cointelegraph, after Trump announced a temporary easing of tensions with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly rose by 4%, oil prices subsequently dropped by 14% to $85 per barrel of WTI, and the S&P 500 index rose by 3%. However, Bitcoin derivatives data continued to send out mixed signals, with the market lacking confidence in the $68,000 support level.

On the futures market side, the Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium was reported at 2% on Monday, lower than the 4% to 8% range usually corresponding to a longer settlement period under neutral conditions, indicating insufficient long leverage demand. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even though the price briefly rebounded to near $76,000 earlier.

On the options market side, the 80,000 USDT call option on Deribit trading platform expiring on April 24th was priced at 0.017 BTC (about $1,207), with a 31-day expiration and 48% implied volatility. The market priced the probability of Bitcoin rising to $80,000 during this period at only 20%. In the usually optimistic crypto market, such a low expectation of a 13% increase within the month is rare.

The Fed's pause on interest rate cuts has made it difficult for investors to exit fixed income positions, and traders are likely to remain cautious until oil prices fall below $75 or lower. Unless there is an additional catalyst, the likelihood of Bitcoin traders switching to a bullish stance is not high, especially against the backdrop of continued lack of belief in on-chain data and derivatives indicators.