According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the accounts that earned over 70% of their total profits from the three events related to the recent Iran conflict reported in this channel believe that "Israel will launch a large-scale ground offensive against Lebanon this month." Currently, the probability of this outcome has reached 99%.
Since the first troops crossed the border on March 16, the IDF has been cautious in using the term "limited" externally. However, by the 22nd, a senior IDF officer publicly stated, "The action against Hezbollah has just begun, and this will be a long-term operation." The military spokesperson also confirmed simultaneously that the "comprehensive expansion" of ground operations will take place later this week.
Yesterday, IDF warplanes bombed the strategic artery connecting southern and northern Lebanon—the Kasmiyeh Bridge. More significantly, Israeli Defense Minister Katz subsequently made a public statement, indicating that Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered the "immediate destruction of all bridges over the Litani River."
