Two Smart Money accounts pooled $4300 in anticipation that the Italian judiciary reform referendum will not pass.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money accounts have collectively invested $4300, betting "no" on the "Italian Judicial Reform Referendum will pass," with the probability of "yes" increasing from 32% two days ago to the current 59%.

Per the settlement rules, if the Italian Judicial Reform Constitutional Referendum receives a majority of valid affirmative votes in this national referendum, it will be settled as a "yes." The result will be based solely on the official certification results announced by the Italian Ministry of the Interior or equivalent official body.

This constitutional amendment, known as the "Nordio Reform" (named after the current Minister of Justice Carlo Nordio), is a major judicial restructuring plan promoted by the Italian government. Its key modifications include: a complete separation of the career development paths of judges and public prosecutors (prosecutors), prohibiting them from swapping roles during their careers; splitting the existing Supreme Judicial Council into two bodies to separately oversee judges and prosecutors, introducing a draw mechanism to select some members; and establishing a new Supreme Disciplinary Court to specifically address disciplinary issues of judges and prosecutors.

Currently, voting is ongoing, and there is no requirement to meet a "50% + 1" threshold. The official final results will be announced by the Ministry of the Interior on March 24 or no later than March 25.

This bill has sparked significant social polarization and strong resistance from the judicial community. Supporters, including the Meloni government and right-wing coalition, believe that this move can eliminate the "guildism" and factional struggles within the judiciary. However, opponents (center-left camp and a large number of legal professionals) strongly warn that separating public prosecutors and weakening the autonomy of their council would undermine the independence of the Italian judiciary, making it more susceptible to executive interference.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, the trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, displaying actions of taking profits or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x7bb244d0c70293e66dee84f3d0623fbbbf7d682c;
0x784feec38475dc47e63c3a16cbd24b905dab5df9.