Bitunix Analyst: Escalation of Energy Conflict and Liquidity Constriction Resonance, BTC Absorbs Repeatedly at Range Low

BlockBeats News, March 20th. The Middle East situation continues to escalate, shifting the market focus from single-point conflicts to the systemic risks of the energy supply chain and maritime security. Iran has stated that retaliation actions are not over and is considering imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, several European countries and Japan have issued a joint statement, prepared to intervene to safeguard maritime security. An attack on Qatar's LNG facility has resulted in around 17% of exports being damaged, further increasing energy supply uncertainty. The U.S. has sent mixed signals, with considerations to relax Iranian oil restrictions to lower oil prices on one hand, and increasing military budgets and regional arms sales on the other, highlighting strategic goal divergences.

On the policy front, the interest rate market quickly adjusted expectations, currently pricing in a cut of approximately 5.5 basis points within the year, with some even betting on a rate hike. The Bank of England has unanimously decided to hold rates steady and hinted at a potential rate hike, the European Central Bank has raised inflation expectations, and the Bank of Japan is also monitoring the upside risks to oil prices. Major central banks worldwide have shifted towards a more conservative stance simultaneously, tightening the marginal liquidity environment. Additionally, the U.S. plans to relax bank capital rules to release some funds but struggles to offset macro tightening pressures.

In terms of market structure, the expiration of the $5.7 trillion "Triple Witching Day" options is approaching, combined with Middle East risks, amplifying the potential for asset price volatility. The VIX remains relatively high, indicating that the market is still in a high state of alert, with funds leaning towards short-term hedging rather than directional bets.

Turning back to the crypto market, observing from the liquidation heat map, after BTC retraced from its high, a clear long-short game zone has formed in the $69,000–71,000 range, where a significant number of short-term leveraged positions have accumulated, reflecting funds' attempts to establish a bottom. The $68,500 range below is a key area for short-term liquidity defense. On the other hand, the $70,800 range and higher around $72,000 still hold significant short liquidity, indicating that the market has not yet seen an effective risk preference return flow.

Overall, the macro liquidity tightening resonating with energy risks has kept the market in a "high-volatility, low-trend" state. Currently, BTC is more of a risk tolerance test rather than a trend reversal signal, with short-term liquidity churning within the range still dominant.