According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money addresses collectively invested $13.4k in the "no" outcome of "Will the US escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31st," with the current probability of "yes" at 20%.
Per the settlement rules, if the US military or federal government formally announces, before March 31st Eastern Time, that it will, is, or has escorted any commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the market will settle as "yes." Escorting refers to US military or government personnel providing accompanying or proactive protective monitoring for specific commercial ships or fleets, without boarding, conducted via independent naval vessels or aerial assets.
The US military has ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship to the Middle East region, expected to arrive later this month. Trump previously stated readiness to provide escort if needed, but US Energy Secretary Chris Wright clearly stated in a recent interview that the US is currently "not ready at all" to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Note: Based on their historical trading profile, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening their position.
Accounts:
0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708
0xbf961d0c79db0bf55050cadc0995835f09c09942
0x1b5655739e33491a3d831bcb51e2c74e0501715e
0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647
Total Investment: $13.4k
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