Four Smart Money Addresses Bet $97,000, Predicting "Iran Regime Will Not Collapse Before July"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money addresses have collectively wagered $97k on the outcome of "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30th," buying "No," with the current probability of "Yes" at 28%.

Per the settlement rules, the market will resolve to "Yes" if by 6.30, Iran's core governing structure (e.g., Office of the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, Revolutionary Guard) is dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different regime, losing substantive control over the vast majority of the population. Routine political events (e.g., elections, reforms, leadership successions), and internal power transitions that retain the core structure do not trigger settlement. Partial territorial loss or challenges by insurgent groups, as long as the regime still governs the majority, will also not result in a "Yes" settlement.

Voices predicting a fall point to Iran grappling with direct strikes on key military and energy assets and prolonged economic sanctions, along with speculations of intense factional infighting or loss of control within the high echelons, particularly after Mujtaba Khamenei's discreet assumption of power as the Supreme Leader.

On the other hand, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to tightly hold domestic security and military power. Furthermore, despite external pressures, the regime maintains its survival resources by effectively controlling the geopolitical game through the Strait of Hormuz.

Yesterday, Iranian officials confirmed the death in an Israeli airstrike of Ali Larjani, who was effectively the top decision-maker post-Khamenei's death, responsible for mediating conflicts between President Raisi (moderate camp) and the IRGC hardliners, and leading the diplomatic maneuvers against the US and Israel. Analysts suggest his demise could hasten the exposure of internal rifts.

Note: Based on their historical trading behavior, the trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101
0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050b
0xa8948e141de09e8ed204681e4beb4d2473075324
0x7744bfd749a70020d16a1fcbac1d064761c9999e

Total Wager: $97k
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