Economic Market High Win Rate Address has invested $4,500, predicting "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normalcy before May."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, within the past 24 hours, an address with a 77% win rate has placed a $4,500 bet on "yes" in the "Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by May" market, where the current probability of this event being "yes" is 25%.

For the definition of "return to normal," settlement will be deemed as "yes" if the IMF Portwatch at any point between the market creation date and April 30, 2026, announces that the 7-day moving average of "vessel arrivals" in the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60.

On the 17th, Iraq was in talks with Iran, seeking safe passage for its oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz; the Iraqi Oil Minister also simultaneously announced that the government is prepared to inspect and push to restart the long-idle Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline within a week to resume some exports while the strait remains unstable.

On the same day, a senior advisor to the UAE President stated that the UAE may join any U.S.-led international efforts aimed at ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz. This indicates that among the Gulf's core littoral states, there are already countries openly expressing a willingness to participate in a joint framework for stabilizing the waterway.

Note: Based on their historical trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at some point after opening the position.

Address:
0x853c37a959a5791b849e3f3225c7f5963746bd03

Total Investment: $4.5k
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