Predicting Trump's Election Victory Earns $1.9M Account Invests $425K Bet Russia-Ukraine Will Ceasefire This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, an account that previously successfully predicted Trump's election as US President and made a profit of $1.9 million has invested $425,000 in "Will there be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by 2027" betting on "Yes", with the current probability at 36%.

The trader posted in X: "The Ukraine conflict is apparently coming to an end... The mutual desire of Russia and the US to end the war is hard to stop. When the Russians start cutting off power to Kiev, they become extremely efficient, and the cost of sanctioning Russian energy has just increased. The ceasefire price of 37 cents is very cheap."

To ease the economic pressure brought on by the recent escalation in the Middle East situation and the surge in oil prices, the US government has begun to loosen some sanctions on Russian energy exports. The Iran conflict objectively pushed up global energy prices, allowing Russia to gain higher energy income to support its war costs. At the same time, Russia has recently intensified its attacks on Ukraine's key energy infrastructure, leading to large-scale power outages in places like Kiev.

Ukraine has expressed protest against the US's easing of sanctions and reiterated that it will not compromise on territory for a ceasefire. There is internal division within the EU on this matter, with some countries concerned that the US's strategic shift will fully shift the financial and military burden of supporting Ukraine onto Europe.

Note: Based on their past trading patterns, it is assessed that this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, but may engage in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4.