The 98th Academy Awards winners announced, with Polymarket correctly predicting 12 out of 14.

According to PolyBeats Monitoring, on the Polymarket prediction market, out of the previously tracked 14 key awards, 12 final winners matched the frontrunners on the odds boards, including Best Picture, Best Editing, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Actor, Best Animated Feature, Best Original Song, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects, and Best Sound. The two awards that saw unexpected upsets were "Best Cinematography" and "Best Ensemble Cast."

"Best Cinematography," with the highest prior probability going to "The Great War Redux" (89%), was ultimately won by "The Sinner." Industry analysis pointed out that "The Sinner" excelled in recreating the Southern Gothic visual style of 1930s America, utilizing innovative natural light and shadow contrast to capture the cinematography of supernatural horror elements such as vampires. This technique was highly praised by the Academy's technical branch in the final judging phase, leading to the upset victory.

"Best Ensemble Cast," with the highest prior probability going to "The Sinner" (80%), was ultimately won by "The Great War Redux." Contrasting with "The Sinner," which heavily focused on Michael B. Jordan's dual-role performance, "The Great War Redux" successfully crafted a vast and intricately interwoven ensemble cast in a world of rebellion. Its highly coordinated ensemble scenes ultimately won the favor of the majority of judges.
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