New Account Bet $90,000 That the Iranian Regime Will Fall by June 30

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has invested $90,000 in betting "yes" on "Will the Iranian regime fall before ___," including two deadlines of 4.30 and 6.30, with the current price for the regime to fall before 6.30 at 23.5¢.

Analysis suggests that following the loss of a key strongman, there is a real risk of internal fragmentation within Iran among hardliners, pragmatists (such as President Raeisi's reformist supporters), and various security and military institutions descending into serious factional infighting.

For instance, post-President Raeisi's speeches, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or other institutions often issue follow-up statements to rebut or supplement the president's remarks: On March 7, 2026, Raeisi, in a televised speech, apologized to Gulf neighbors and pledged to cease attacks (unless attacked by these countries). However, hours later, the Revolutionary Guard issued a warning statement that if hostile actions persisted, there would be a "crushing strike" against U.S. and Israeli bases in the region; subsequently, Raeisi's office issued a clarification statement omitting the initial apology, further underscoring the tension between the president and the hardline military.

Yesterday, the new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, did not choose to appear publicly or broadcast live in his first major statement but instead had it read on national television in the form of a written announcement. This unusual move has led to speculation that his health may be at risk, his personal safety threatened, or that he has not yet fully consolidated power within the internal power structures.

Account:
0xa2536f292681daff7a048ab51fab6bdf81ecc48f

Total Position: $90k
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