The Democratic Party's chance of a "sweep" in the 2026 midterm elections has surged to 46%, reaching a new high

BlockBeats News, March 13th, according to information on the relevant page, the probability of "Democratic Party Sweeping the 2026 Midterm Elections" on Polymarket soared to 46%, hitting a record high. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28th, the probability of a Democratic sweep has risen to 5%. Meanwhile, the probability of a Republican sweep is currently only 17%.

BlockBeats Note: If one party wins a majority of the voting seats in the House of Representatives, that party will be considered to control the House. If one party has more than half of the voting seats in the Senate, or half the seats with the Vice President belonging to that party (holding the deciding vote), that party will be considered to control the Senate. The US midterm elections do not elect the president or vice president but rather elect positions in Congress and some governors, among others. It is seen as a "referendum" or "litmus test" on the performance of the incumbent president and their party. If a president has low approval ratings, their party often loses seats in the midterm elections.