Oil Prices Ride a Rollercoaster, Trump Administration Intervenes, Market Focus Shifts to Hormuz

BlockBeats News, March 13th, according to Bitget market data, the oil price experienced a roller-coaster trend early this morning, with Brent oil once approaching $100 per barrel, WTI crude oil approaching $98 per barrel, and now falling back to $97.4 and $95.1 per barrel, respectively. As early as this Monday, the price of Brent crude oil surged to nearly $100 per barrel, then sharply fell below $100 per barrel.

Previously, the U.S. Treasury Department was considering measures to lower the oil price, including intervening in the futures market. The Trump administration has temporarily allowed countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea, urgently seeking to stabilize the global energy market. At the same time, it announced on Wednesday the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent an oil price shock. The head of the CME Group warned the Trump administration that attempting to lower oil prices through derivatives market intervention during a war with Iran could trigger an "epic disaster." However, the wild fluctuation in oil prices has led the market to speculate that the U.S. Treasury Department may have intervened in the futures market, although the U.S. Treasury Department refused to comment on this speculation.

Currently, the market believes that the oil price could still rise to $200, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader Mujtaba issued his first statement this morning, stating that he would not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and he plans to use this strategic waterway through which 20% of global oil supply passes as a bargaining chip against the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bennett revealed that the U.S. Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but this may not be put into practice by the end of the month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the Strait of Hormuz reopening for navigation before April 30th" is 46%, the probability of "oil price exceeding $120 by the end of the month" is 41%, and the probability of "oil price exceeding $200 by the end of the month" is 4%.