Israel acknowledges inability to ensure collapse of Iran regime, US indication to end war still distant

BlockBeats News, March 11th, according to Reuters, a senior Israeli official said that in a closed-door discussion, Israeli officials have acknowledged that a war against Iran would not necessarily lead to the collapse of its theocratic regime, and there is currently no sign of an uprising among the Iranian people despite ongoing bombardment. Two Israeli officials said that despite Trump's suggestion that the war could end quickly, Israel assesses that the US is still far from indicating an end to the conflict.

On the day of the joint US-Israeli airstrike, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said: "Our joint operation will create conditions for the brave Iranian people to take control of their own destiny." He specifically mentioned Iran's major ethnic minority groups, which further fueled reports of potential US or Israeli support for these groups to launch an uprising. However, Netanyahu reiterated in a statement on Tuesday that while Israel hopes to help the Iranian people "break free from the shackles of tyranny," ultimately "it depends on them," indicating that an uprising seems unrealistic in the short term.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Iranian regime falls by the end of this month" has dropped to 5%, and the probability of "Iranian regime falls by June 30th" has dropped to 23%.