「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: The Hormuz Strait Is the Real Battlefield, Risk Assets Will Continue to Come Under Pressure in the Short Term

BlockBeats News, March 11th, "BTC OG Insider Whale" proxy Garrett Jin released a long article stating that although the current U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran were tactically successful (destroying Iran's conventional forces, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, etc.), they were strategically stalemated. The Strait of Hormuz is the real battlefield, which has been "soft-blocked" (non-physical closure, but rather a breakdown in insurance mechanisms + Iran's asymmetric threats), leading to a global oil transportation interruption, a continued market misjudgment of the duration, and oil prices surging from $85 to $119.50.

Garrett Jin said that the U.S. won every battle but is losing the entire war, with no military solution available and only relying on diplomacy (possible U.S.-China summit), otherwise facing the possibility of deploying ground troops, getting bogged down, and causing global energy/economic turmoil.

The optimistic scenario is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, significant diplomatic efforts yielding results, and ultimately achieving a ceasefire or other potential agreements. The pessimistic scenario (diplomatic failure and long-term closure) has no historical pricing template to follow. In either case, in the short term, crude oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations will push up duration premiums. Risk assets will remain under pressure until a reliable solution emerges.