Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Price Currently Driven by Spot Demand, Establishing Foundation for High Certainty Mean Reversion Trend

BlockBeats News, March 10th, Bitfinex released a report stating that despite the geopolitical escalation following the 'Black Saturday' in Iran two weeks ago and the disappointing US non-farm payroll data showing only a dual blow of 92,000 new jobs, the $60,000–$64,000 Bitcoin support range has shown unexpected resilience. Since then, international crude oil prices have risen significantly, which may impact future Consumer Price Index (CPI) as energy accounts for about 9% of the final CPI calculation. This inflationary pressure implies that all risk assets may face resistance.

However, for Bitcoin, there are currently two forces at play. The first is that Bitcoin tends to fluctuate more easily and rapidly compared to other risk assets. As its correlation with high-risk tech sectors increases and its correlation with safe-haven assets like gold decreases, Bitcoin often experiences more exaggerated downward volatility before other risk assets decline. However, it also tends to bottom out earlier than other risk assets. Given Bitcoin's underperformance against the S&P 500 or Nasdaq in the past two quarters, this dynamic may be at play.

The current market condition can be described as a 'Deleveraging Tide.' Retail investor sentiment remains highly cautious, and since the peak in October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a 52% peak-to-trough retracement, indicating that much of the speculative bubble in the market has almost entirely dissipated. This can be corroborated by the Leverage Reset Index, which is the ratio of total open interest (OI) to exchange spot total reserves, currently at a multi-year low of 0.32. This indicates that the current price discovery is mainly driven by spot demand rather than leverage derivatives, laying the foundation for a high-certainty mean-reversion trend after macro volatility contraction.