HTX DeepThink: Middle East Situation Rocks Oil Prices, Energy Shock Impact Will Determine Bitcoin's Trajectory

BlockBeats News, March 10, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe analyzed that the Middle East conflict entered its tenth day, triggering a huge earthquake in the energy market. Influenced by the supply risk in the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude oil once touched a high of $119 per barrel. Subsequently, following the ceasefire signal released by U.S. President Trump, oil prices quickly fell back to around $80, with a single-day amplitude of over 40%. Currently, the U.S. stock market has recovered from its decline, U.S. Treasury bond yields have fallen, and the market is re-pricing geopolitical risks.

The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the crypto market is mainly transmitted through energy prices to inflation expectations, thereby affecting the liquidity environment. If oil prices continue to rise, global inflation expectations will rise significantly, squeezing the Fed's policy space by raising real interest rates. Because high real interest rates usually suppress the valuation of risk assets and drive funds into the dollar, during a sharp rise in energy prices, the crypto market tends to exhibit short-term volatility driven by risk aversion sentiment rather than a trending uptrend.

Currently, the U.S. government's intention to stabilize the energy market is quite clear. In addition to releasing signals of conflict moderation, the U.S. is considering easing global energy pressure through measures such as increasing Venezuelan oil supply and moderately relaxing sanctions on Russia. If such measures to cool off inflation expectations are implemented, the suppression of Bitcoin valuation will be alleviated.

Nevertheless, the maritime security of the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain. If the energy supply shock continues, it may bring a new round of turbulence to the global financial markets. Overall, the trend of Bitcoin still depends on the game between energy prices and liquidity expectations: if the situation cools down, the market logic will return to high-beta liquidity assets; if the energy shock pushes up the interest rate environment, the volatility of the crypto market will further increase.