Earlier Suspected Insider Account Began Stop-Loss Exit, Saudi Strike on Iran Probability Reduced to 33%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the suspected insider trading account previously tracked by this channel has started selling to stop out its holdings of "Saudi Arabia to Strike Iran by March 31." Currently, the market's probability of "Yes" has dropped to 33%.

Previously, the sharp increase in the market's probability was mainly driven by a breaking news report from various mainstream media outlets. The report at the time cited a senior Israeli official's message stating that Saudi Arabia is expected to launch a retaliatory strike against Iran.

Combining the account's precise timing of previous bets with the hour-level time difference between the betting and the news release, the actual controller of the account may have had advanced access to mainstream media publication schedules or internal news briefings.

Currently, due to the delayed realization of any substantial military strike, increasing uncertainty over time has prompted the account to proactively close out positions to stop losses.

Account:
0xc0292a841a0c9a7320aa39075cffcf1b8f64f705
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