Trump Forced to Upgrade Middle East War Deployment, Conflict Window Extended to 100 Days

BlockBeats News, March 5th, the US State Department is increasing resources to evacuate American citizens stranded in the Middle East, while the Pentagon is also urgently deploying additional US military personnel responsible for collecting intelligence for military operations. These actions indicate that the Trump administration apparently failed to prepare adequately in advance for a larger-scale war. The US Central Command is requesting the Pentagon to dispatch more military intelligence personnel to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support actions against Iran for at least 100 days, possibly extending until September, far beyond the four-week timeline initially envisioned by Trump.

As the US and Israel may continue to lengthen the front line, the likelihood of other countries directly participating in offensive strikes against Iran is decreasing. Currently, Iran has been significantly weakened, with the frequency of drone and missile strikes against foreign targets much lower than in the early stages of the conflict. Meanwhile, the UK, France, and Germany have consistently shown cautious restraint in striking Iran. UK Prime Minister Stamer explicitly stated that UK aircraft could participate in regional defensive interceptions but ruled out joining "offensive operations." While France has deployed the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean, it still emphasizes that it is a defensive deployment. Germany has strong anti-war sentiment domestically, and constitutional limitations on overseas offensive deployments make direct participation in combat the least likely.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the probability of "Various countries directly striking Iran before March 31st" on the prediction market Polymarket is continuously decreasing, with the participation probabilities of the UK, France, and Germany at 16%, 16%, and 7%, respectively. Previously heavily affected by the US-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with a high probability of participation, have also seen their participation probabilities drop to 33% and 35%.