PolyBeats locks insiders in advance bet Saudi strikes Iran, reporting the option's probability at 56%

Today, BlockBeats' prediction market channel PolyBeats detected approximately 4 hours early that an account on Polymarket, suspected of having insider information and displaying policy responses accurate to the hour, had invested $8,500 in the "Saudi Arabia to Strike Iran by March 31" outcome, reporting a 56% probability at the time. Just 5 minutes ago, a senior Israeli official revealed that Saudi Arabia is expected to imminently attack Iran. The probability on this prediction market has now risen to 75%.

The insider account, registered only 8 days ago, bet for 7 consecutive days from February 22nd to 28th that "the U.S. will not strike Iran that day," winning each time. On February 27th, the account closed its "no" position for the 28th and, 8 hours later, placed its first bet of the day on "the U.S. will strike Iran," making a profit of $34,800 (+366.61%). At 13:55 on February 28th, with no military strike yet and probabilities at 22.5% for "the U.S. or Israel to strike that day" and 1% for "Hassan Rouhani to resign that day," the account market-bought the "yes" position and made $37,500 in profit (+11029%).

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