Is Saudi Arabia Going to Attack Iran? Insider Address on the Hourly Level Again

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, an account exhibiting potential insider information and policy response accuracy to the hour has invested $8.5k to buy "Saudi Arabia to strike Iran by March 31," with the current probability of this outcome at 56%.

This account, registered only 8 days ago, from February 22 to 28, bet consecutively for 7 days on "the US will not strike Iran that day" and won all bets. On February 27, the account liquidated its holdings for the 28th, and 8 hours later placed its first bet on "the US will strike Iran that day," resulting in a profit of $34.8k (+366.61%).

On February 28 at 13:55, with still no military strike occurring, and with probabilities of "the US or Israel striking that day" at only 22.5%, and "Hassan Rouhani stepping down that day" at merely 1%, the account market bought "yes" at market price and profited $37.5k (+11029%).

As of now, there is no concrete intelligence or reports confirming Saudi Arabia has substantively struck Iran on its soil. With Iran's top military command center devastated in US-Israeli airstrikes, Saudi Arabia, a longstanding adversary of Iran, may seize this historic power vacuum.

Saudi Arabia has a strong motive to align with US-Israeli maximum pressure, taking the opportunity to eliminate Iran's proxies' security threats in border areas (such as Yemen's Houthi rebels) and maybe even conduct pinpoint strikes on specific Iranian targets, thus fundamentally reshaping the strategic balance in the Gulf region.

Account:
0xc0292a841a0c9a7320aa39075cffcf1b8f64f705

Total Position: $8.5k
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