Analysis: Bitcoin Downtrend Momentum Could Slow Down, But Still in Bear Market Structure

BlockBeats News, March 3rd. The recent downward momentum of Bitcoin has slightly weakened, but a structural reversal signal has not yet appeared, and the overall situation is still within a bear market framework. Bitcoin did not accelerate its decline due to risk aversion-related negative news, indicating that the downward pressure may be easing. The price has now risen back above the 20-day moving average (about $68,500), the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, potentially creating conditions for range expansion. The $62,500 level has been tested three times without being broken, seen as a key support level. At the same time, RSI and the stochastic indicator are showing a bullish divergence, and the momentum is stabilizing.

Analysts believe that the market is experiencing "tactical improvement" but has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. The current volatility compression, increased ETF inflows, and the disappearance of Coinbase's discount do not align with the typical characteristics of a "new round of accelerated decline." However, the overall asset allocation model still classifies Bitcoin as being in a bear market environment, so any long positions should be viewed as tactical operations.

In the derivatives market, researchers point out that the previous deep negative funding rate led to a perpetual contract short squeeze, triggering a typical "short squeeze" and propelling the price to rebound rapidly from the $63,000 low, alleviating short-term selling pressure. However, analysts also emphasize that structural fund inflows are still lacking, macro catalysts are limited, and the downward trend since the historical high has not been broken.

Overall, the market sentiment has shifted from previous panic selling to relatively restrained, and the short-term may enter a period of consolidation, but the medium-term trend is still pending confirmation.