Bitunix Analyst: Escalation of Conflict in the Middle East Puts BTC to the Test as "Digital Gold"

BlockBeats News, March 2nd. The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, entering the 3rd day of conflict. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping is obstructed, and oil tanker transport has significantly slowed down. The United States has not discussed releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) yet, with the market interpreting this as Washington's assessment that oil prices are still within a manageable range. Several investment banks have simulated oil price scenarios: if the strait remains closed for a long time, Brent crude may surpass $100; if the conflict is quickly resolved, the risk premium may retreat temporarily.

On a macro level, a situation of "inflation overlaying geopolitical risk" is emerging. The U.S. January PPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month, higher than expected, with a core year-on-year increase of 3.4%, indicating that upstream price pressures remain sticky, constraining the Fed's room for interest rate cuts. If oil prices continue to rise, it will create a secondary disturbance to inflation expectations and interest rate trajectories. Short-term capital flows into gold and the dollar, U.S. bond volatility increases, and risk assets face repricing.

In the cryptocurrency market, the $67,800–$69,500 range above BTC is a zone with high short positions, and the $64,000–$65,000 range below has significant long position support. The price is currently hovering around $66,000, experiencing liquidity tug-of-war within the range. If the conflict escalates, boosting safe-haven demand, whether BTC can break through the upper liquidation zone and form a trend extension will determine whether it is redefined by the market as "digital gold"; conversely, if it falls back and retests the $64,000 support, it will still lean towards being a high-volatility risk asset.

In summary, this is not merely a geopolitical event-driven trade, but a pressure test on BTC's narrative positioning. The key lies not in short-term fluctuations, but in whether funds choose to include it in their core hedge allocations during a period of rising risk.