Bloomberg Opinion: This Iran War Won’t Blow Up the Oil Crisis

BlockBeats News, March 2nd, Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas wrote that the impact of the Iranian attack on oil prices was severe but not disruptive.

Blas' article pointed out that the market's biggest concern is whether both sides will target energy infrastructure and force the closure of oil shipping routes. Neither of these has happened yet. Not so far. Despite concerns that Iran may set fire to the Middle East energy industry, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not weaponized oil. Israel and the United States have also not targeted Iran's oil infrastructure.

Analysts say oil prices will spike, but even the most bullish traders are talking about possibly reaching $100 per barrel, well below the $139 per barrel reached after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. In that light, this Middle East crisis is unlikely to trigger an oil shock.

Furthermore, despite the physical market being weak, the financial oil market has been bullish, buying up oil in anticipation of price increases. A year ago, Israel and the US's 12-day war against Iran caught many traders off guard, triggering a buying frenzy that sent oil prices soaring. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are more prepared to weather this crisis.