Mystery Account Made Well-Timed Bet on Iran Airstrike, Trump Camp Accused of 'Insider Trading'

BlockBeats News, March 2nd, a Polymarket account named "Magamyman" made approximately $515,000 in profit in a single day by betting that the US would strike Iran, sparking concerns of "prior knowledge of military action and profiteering." Democratic Representatives Mike Levin, Senators Chris Murphy and Ruben Gallego publicly denounced the behavior, alleging insider trading and calling for legislation to restrict such bets.

One of the key controversies is the contract related to "Will Iran's Supreme Leader step down" launched on Kalshi. Despite Kalshi being regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and claiming to prohibit bets on war or assassination events, critics argue that the contract essentially constitutes an indirect assassination prediction market. Former SEC aide Amanda Fischer stated that the design "fundamentally provides an alternative form of assassination prediction market."

In response, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that all relevant market fees would be refunded and positions established prior to the death of Ayatollah Khamenei would be forcibly settled at the final trade price. However, some users expressed dissatisfaction with the forced liquidation decision, and the controversy continues to escalate.

The White House responded, stating that government decisions are solely guided by the interests of the American people. Discussions surrounding whether prediction markets during international conflicts foster insider trading are intensifying in the US political and regulatory spheres.