Analyst: Indicators Show Current Market Sentiment Far From Previous Cycle Lows' Surrender Area

BlockBeats News, February 26th, Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel released a report on social media stating that CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin's "MVRV Z-Score" is currently -2.28, falling below the bear market bottoms of 2018 (-1.6) and 2022 (-1.4), entering a "Strong Bear" zone.

The MVRV Z-Score is a standardized deviation value of market capitalization relative to realized cap; a negative value indicates that the market price is below on-chain "fair value."

Axel explained that this anomaly can be attributed to the scale of realized cap in the era of ETFs, where a large amount of institutional capital inflow has elevated the cost basis, making the Z-Score more sensitive to price adjustments. If the Z-Score rebounds above -1.5 and the price holds above $65,000, it will be the first technical confirmation signal of exiting the pressure zone.

However, the NUPL indicator, which measures market sentiment, is currently at 0.197, still in the "Hope" zone, far from reaching the surrender zone historically seen at market cycle bottoms. During true surrender phases (December 2018, March 2020, November 2022), NUPL would drop into the negative zone, with the majority of holders experiencing net losses. The current 0.197 is in the middle of the historical range, far from the real pain area. The data shows that market sentiment is weakening but not yet at a panic level. Most participants are still in a paper profit state (NUPL> 0), but confidence has been significantly shaken.