Stripe's full acquisition of PayPal this year is only 26% likely, with a partial acquisition possibility of 46%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the odds of "Stripe acquiring PayPal by 2026" are currently at 26%. At the same time, another related market "Stripe acquiring any part of PayPal by 2026" has odds of 46%.

On February 24, Bloomberg reported that Stripe, the private fintech giant with a valuation soaring to $159 billion, is in preliminary discussions to acquire some or all of the business of the legacy payment pioneer PayPal.

The low likelihood of a full acquisition is mainly due to the extremely high risk of antitrust scrutiny and the difficulty of corporate integration. The merged entity is expected to control 60% to 75% of the U.S. online payment market, making it highly likely to be blocked or rigorously reviewed by regulatory authorities on grounds of suspected monopoly pricing power.

Therefore, analysis leans towards the idea that Stripe will not buy the entire company but will instead selectively acquire specific core assets of PayPal (such as Braintree or Venmo).

Per the rules of the partial acquisition market, as long as an official announcement is made regarding a qualifying acquisition or merger, regardless of whether the transaction is ultimately completed, it will be counted as a "yes"; simple business collaborations between the two parties do not apply.
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