Analysis: BTC Hodler Believer Position hits new cycle high, approaching bear market bottom

BlockBeats News, February 21st, Crypto analyst Murphy stated that analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the current distance to the "bear market bottom" is no longer far away.

Using the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, BTC dropped to a minimum of $17,000, not far from the ultimate absolute bottom price of $15,000. This means that spatially, it is already in the "bear market bottom" range, but truly breaking out and completing the bottoming process took a full 7 months. Currently, the "space" is getting closer to the bear market bottom, but there is still a considerable distance in "time."

The key is to observe the behavior of Conviction Buyers (CB), who act as the smartest diamond hands in this market, often buying during dips and selling after rallies. In another sense, rather than saying they often buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers.

As of February, faith-driven buyers have accumulated a total of 3.48 million BTC, once again breaking the record for this cycle. They have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC since January this year, a data point that far surpasses the previous cycle's 5/19 event, LUNA and FTX crashes. Moreover, with the current BTC price higher than the mentioned time points, the "smart decision-makers" are also investing more at this moment. While the exact bottom position is hard to predict, for the CB group, they do not rely on timing the absolute lowest point. As long as there is sufficient value, they will continue to buy in until all excess supply is absorbed. When a balance is reached between supply and demand, the bear market bottom range is formed, followed by months of consensus rebuilding before embarking on a new trend. Historical data shows that the steadfastness and strength exhibited by faith-driven buyers today fully meet the standard of "not far from the bear market bottom."