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Analyst: Technicals and On-Chain Data Point to Bitcoin's Short-Term Downside Risk

2026-02-18 03:22

BlockBeats News, February 18th: Analyst Yashu Gola stated that the current technical outlook and on-chain data both point to Bitcoin's short-term downside risk.


Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a typical "bear pennant" pattern. This structure began with the "flagpole" from the previous sharp drop to the $60,000 region, followed by price consolidation within a converging trendline, continuously suppressed by key moving averages, and showing weakening momentum.


If the price clearly breaks below the lower boundary of the pennant, it may further decline to the $56,000 level in February, representing a drop of about 20% from the current level. Conversely, a breakthrough above the upper boundary around $72,700 (coinciding with the 20-day moving average) could overturn this bearish structure.


On-chain data platform CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's "Whale Inflow Volume Ratio" (7-day average) has surged to a historic high of 0.619, far above the early-month value of 0.40. This indicator tracks the proportion of total inflows from the top ten transactions, with its increase often interpreted as an escalation of whale selling pressure.


Meanwhile, the Greed and Fear Index is signaling a potential "bottoming signal": after the 21-day moving average crossed below the zero axis, it is now turning upwards. Historically, this combination has often accompanied a "lasting bottom," suggesting that while a brief downturn is not ruled out, the likelihood of a rebound is accumulating.

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