Analysis: If ETH breaks through the key neckline level, it is expected to rebound to the $2,500 range

BlockBeats News, February 17th, despite ETH experiencing a cumulative drop of about 20% since February and briefly falling below the $2,000 psychological support level, on-chain data and derivatives structure indicate that the market is brewing a potential rebound.

On-chain data shows that in February, over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term holding addresses. Since 2026, the holdings of these addresses have increased from 22 million ETH to 26.7 million ETH. At the same time, currently about 37.22 million ETH (over 30% of the circulating supply) is staked, leading to a continuous reduction in the circulating supply. The network's fundamentals have also significantly improved, with weekly transaction volume hitting a record high of 17.3 million transactions and the median Gas fee dropping to $0.008, a decrease of about 3,000 times from the peak in 2021.

Technically, on the 4-hour chart, ETH may be forming an "Adam and Eve bottom" reversal pattern. If the price effectively breaks above the $2,150 neckline, the theoretical target range points to $2,473–2,634. If the recent swing low structure is breached, $1,909 is a key short-term liquidity level.

Regarding derivatives, the size of outstanding ETH contracts has dropped to $11.2 billion, significantly down from the peak of $30 billion in August 2025, but the estimated leverage ratio remains at a relatively high level of 0.7. Data shows that about 73% of accounts are in a long position; the liquidation heat map indicates that there is significant short liquidation pressure above $2,200, with over $2 billion in liquidations, while long liquidations around $1,800 amount to about $1 billion, indicating a relatively higher short squeeze risk on the upside.

Analysts believe that if ETH can successfully break above $2,150, it may open up short-term upside potential, with the target pointing to the $2,500 level.