Polymarket Launches Daily Market Predicting Trump's End of Term

According to PolyBeats monitoring, a daily updated fun prediction event titled "Will the White House call a 'Full Lid' before 6:30 PM today" was launched on the prediction market Polymarket this week.

Full Lid was originally a term used by White House reporters, indicating the press office has informed the press pool that there will be no further public events, statements, or breaking news for the day, and reporters can "put the lid on the camera" and go off duty. However, during the Biden administration, it has become a meme due to its frequent early morning or noon announcements of the conclusion of the day's schedule.

It is important to note that currently the settlement rules for this event series are not precise (in the author's opinion):

(If before 6:30 PM Eastern Time (ET) on the specified date, the White House press office declares a "full lid" for the day, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No".)

Based on the settlement of 5 markets, the settlement criterion is not the White House's announcement time for the end of the schedule but rather the labeled "time to leave" for President Trump. For example, if today the White House press office publishes a "Trump off-duty" notice on the webpage at 23:50, with the notice marked at 18:20, then according to the settlement patterns of the past 5 markets, today's market should settle as "Yes".