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Account with 91% Win Rate Predicting “US Government Shutdown” Nets $240,000 Profit in Single Trade

2026-02-13 10:55

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, the current probability of a U.S. government shutdown on Saturday is 26%.

This market is settled based on the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website, and OPM Director Scott Kupor stated at 12:01 that the website status will not be changed due to the funding lapse of the Department of Homeland Security, causing a sharp drop in the market probability.

Meanwhile, an account named Llalalala, which had bet on a 91% probability of a U.S. government shutdown, started liquidating all its original "Yes" shares at 12:02 and began buying "No" shares at an average price of 5c. Currently, Llalalala has sold its positions for a profit, with a total gain of nearly $240,000.

Account: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
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