Insight: The Bitcoin market sentiment has reached an extremely fragile state, and a panic-driven sell-off may lead to a deep bearish scenario

BlockBeats News, February 13, according to Chinese analyst Murphy, in this current cycle, Bitcoin's LTH-RPRL (Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss) has dropped below 1 for the first time. The last time this happened was on May 9, 2022; LTH-SOPR has also simultaneously dropped below 1, indicating that LTH holders are not only in an overall loss but are also continuing to sell at a loss.

Murphy stated that the current market sentiment is extremely fragile, with the typical market sentiment being "ignoring good news and amplifying bad news." During this phase, it is more likely to see "an event exacerbating panic, causing LTH sentiment to collapse; this is also the final tremor of each bear market." Looking back at history, when LTH-RPRL drops below 1, the probability of BTC entering a deep bear mode afterward becomes very high. Note that the term "deep bear" here does not refer to a steep decline but rather a long duration of the bear market.