U.S. Office of Personnel Management Director's Post Causes Government Shutdown Odds to Plummet from 96% to 19%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 2 hours, the probability of the U.S. government shutting down on Saturday (February 14) has plummeted from a high of 96% to the current 21%.

The core reason for the probability drop is that Scott Kupor, Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), replied at 12:01 saying "Ha! (I) don't want to be on the wrong side of the line... It involves only a partial Homeland Security funding lapse, we will not change the OPM website to reflect a government shutdown status."

Since Polymarket's rule for settling the status of the U.S. government shutdown is based on OPM status updates, Kupor's reply has led the market to believe that the outcome will settle as "no," causing a sharp drop in the probability.