The probability of Judy Shelton's nomination getting confirmed by February 20th is above 5%, with a probability of 22%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the Polymarket prediction market, a new market was launched today titled "What is the probability that Judy Shelton will be appointed before February 20th, ___%?" Currently, the probability of exceeding 5% is 22%, and the probability of exceeding 10% is 2%.

Shelton was previously nominated by Trump for a Fed board position but was not confirmed by the Senate, which is a historically referenced factor in the media. Despite Trump's selection of Warsh, there is still significant funding flowing into the prediction market for Shelton's appointment. As of the time of writing, the probability of Shelton's appointment is 4.4%.

Due to the settlement condition of this market being "Yes" if Shelton's appointment probability stays above 5% for at least 1 hour, the possibility of artificially driven funding cannot be ruled out at that time.