QCP Capital: This Bear Market Leg Feels More Like a Liquidity Reset Than a Structural Collapse

BlockBeats News, February 12, Elbert Iswara, Client Coverage Lead at QCP Capital, stated in a podcast appearance that the current bear market is more like a liquidity reset rather than a structural collapse. Elbert described this round of volatility as intense but not uncommon historically, and the rebound from around $60,000 indicates that there is still underlying demand, especially from long-term holders and institutions.

Elbert believes that the market direction is being dominated by a broader risk-off sentiment, including liquidity tightening and a shift in rate expectations. Crypto-specific factors such as ETF outflows, derivative position adjustments, and leveraged liquidations have amplified this wave of volatility, making it faster and more intense in its oscillations.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, especially in a period of contraction or stress. Elbert pointed out that this does not negate its narrative logic as a store of value, but it does mean that investors should not expect it to demonstrate hedging properties in every sell-off. Bitcoin remains a hybrid asset whose role will evolve with the macroeconomic cycle.

Elbert emphasized that several key short-term indicators are more important than the narrative, including:

· Key Levels and Positions: The $60,000 - $65,000 range is still a critical psychological and technical range, where low liquidity may amplify the risk of price overextension.

· ETF Fund Flow Continuity: Whether the outflow of funds is continuing or stabilizing will affect short-term price action, especially in a choppy market.

· Leverage and Liquidations: Sharp fluctuations are often amplified when crowded positions are rapidly unwound.

· Correlation Patterns: The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks usually rises during periods of risk aversion and falls back after macro pressures ease. The key is the speed of this decline.

Elbert stated that in the short term, investors should view Bitcoin as an asset sensitive to macro factors with a high beta and manage risk exposure accordingly. In the long term, the true drivers of value are adoption rates, market structure maturity, and whether institutional participation can stabilize throughout the cycle.