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Analyst: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders on the Verge of Structural Surrender, Nearing Bear Market 'Last Capitulation'

BlockBeats News, February 6th, On-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media stating that as of February 5th, several key Long-Term Holders (LTH) metrics had approached critical points: Both the LTH-RPRL (Realized Profit/Loss Ratio) and LTH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) 7-day EMAs had fallen to 1, indicating that long-term holders overall were no longer profitable and were on the brink of a structural capitulation.


At the same time, a significant amount of "long-term and in-loss" chips flowed into trading platforms, potentially signaling that the market is nearing the "straw that breaks the camel's back" moment. Once LTH holders start collapsing across the board, it often corresponds to the final intense volatility phase of each bear market cycle, also known as the darkest hour before the dawn.

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The cryptocurrency market has experienced intense volatility, with Bitcoin dropping 7% in a single day and trading volume significantly reducing. The Fear and Greed Index has entered the "Fear" zone, and a key technical support level is facing a test. The market is entering a consolidation phase, and investors need to be vigilant against short-term fluctuations and long-term risks.
Therefore, for 95% of people, the best strategy is to passively allocate funds into Bitcoin and then hold it for a long time. In this case, volatility will be your chance, and thankfully, it doesn't look like it's going away anytime soon.
If a recession comes (unemployment skyrocketing, interest rate cuts to make up for the loss), how far might BTC fall in extreme cases?
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