Bitcoin Dips Reignite "Four-Year Cycle" Fears, Analysis Suggests Unlikely Return to 80% Plunge

BlockBeats News, February 4th, K33 analysis indicated that Bitcoin has retraced about 40% from its all-time high, and its trend once again resembles the downward phase of the past four-year cycle, causing concerns in the market about a bear market replay. However, the institution believes that the current downturn is structurally different from those in 2018 and 2022, with a lower likelihood of an approximately 80% peak-to-trough drop.

K33 research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that despite the recent market behavior sharing similarities with historical deep corrections, the current environment features stronger institutional participation, inflow of compliant product funds, a more accommodative interest rate environment, and lacks a systemic deleveraging event like in 2022.

He also mentioned that some "bottoming signals" have started to emerge, including extreme pressure readings in spot trading volumes and derivatives markets, but they are still insufficient to confirm a clear bottom. Lunde believes that around $74,000 is a key support level, and if broken, the price could decline to $69,000 or even the $58,000 area near the 200-week moving average; overall, K33 considers the current price range as a potential accumulation zone for long-term investors.