QCP Capital: U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Averted, $75,000 Key Level for Bitcoin

BlockBeats News, February 4th, QCP Capital posted in its official channel stating that, at a macro level, while the cloud of the U.S. government shutdown has dissipated, the key insight is that fiscal standoffs could quickly resurface. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13th, meaning another deadline risk remains. Furthermore, after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, oil prices are rebuilding a modest geopolitical risk premium, but diplomatic messages are still constraining its upside.

Domestically in the U.S., the political game around the Fed has heated up again. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, bringing back uncertainty to everything. If investors start betting on a higher likelihood of more significant rate cuts later this year, this could marginally support risk assets, weaken the dollar, but also shift attention to the balance sheet. Warsh has indicated a preference for a faster balance sheet unwind, which would directly touch the underlying liquidity mechanism of the repo market. A disturbing reminder is: when reserves are scarce at critical junctures, pressure might suddenly manifest.

The options market has reinforced cautious signals. Even during a spot rebound, short-term (front-end) implied volatility still has buying support, at-the-money volatility remains elevated, the term structure is moving towards a slight spot premium, indicating the market is still paying a premium for recent price gap risk. The downside skew is sharply steep, butterfly spread options are still expensive, reflecting demand focused on convexity protection against a collapse. From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a critical inflection point. If held and positions are rebuilt along with normal funding rates, this level seems like a reasonable spot to increase risk exposure. If breached, market sentiment could quickly shift to defense.