Summary of Views on the Current Downtrend: The market no longer believes in the existence of a "bear market," expecting a more moderate and limited decline in the current downtrend. It is advised to consider initial buying opportunities around $60,000-70,000.
BlockBeats News, February 2nd, the crypto market today saw further decline, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of $74,604, Ethereum falling to $2,166, and SOL losing the $100 level for the first time in about 300 days. Meanwhile, spot gold and silver also lost their previous strength, with gold falling below $4,500 per ounce and silver below $74 per ounce, while US stock index futures and the Japanese and South Korean stock markets fell simultaneously. The crypto market failed to see the expected "capital inflow" rally. Here is BlockBeats' compilation of the main analysis points before and after this round of decline:
Tom Lee admitted during a podcast appearance that the current crypto market is in a bear market phase and is under significant short-term pressure. ETH may touch $2,400 as a bottom. (Already breached)
Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated that during the 1011 flash crash event, centralized exchanges (CEX) passively absorbed a large amount of assets (possibly around $10 billion worth of inventory). The long-term reason for the market's subsequent weakness is that the CEXs that took over at that time gradually sold off their inventory using algorithms daily during the US stock market open to slowly liquidate their holdings. Raoul expects the "digestion period" of this round of selling pressure to basically be over by the end of February and believes that after the selling pressure is cleared, Bitcoin will quickly rebound.
ARK Founder Cathie Wood once again hinted at a Bitcoin rebound, stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and even Hyperliquid could potentially be effective diversified investment targets. Since early 2020, the price correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has been only 0.14, remaining at an extremely low level. It is worth noting that in Bitcoin's recent two major bull market cycles, the price of gold has led Bitcoin's price movement.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that due to sustained selling pressure and no new inflows of funds, the Bitcoin price continues to decline. However, unless Saylor significantly sells his holdings, the market will not see a 70% crash as in previous cycles. The current market bottom is still unclear, but this bear market may form a wide-ranging consolidation range.
Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen stated that he believes the bull market for 2023-2025 has ended, and 2026 is an overall "digestion phase" or bear market year. He expects Bitcoin to continue to slowly decline, with the bearish trend lasting at least until the middle of 2026, possibly bottoming in the summer or Q3/Q4. Potential targets include testing the 200-week moving average (200WMA), around $60-70K. The decline in this bear market will be slower and less severe (unlike previous 70-80% collapses) because the top was born in a subdued market, not in extreme frenzy, but 2026 is still a bear market year.
Alliance Co-founder Qiao Wang posted on social media, stating that he is mentally prepared for (Bitcoin) to drop to $30-40,000, but does not predict it will drop to that level. If it drops to $60-70,000, he will start buying slowly. If it truly drops to the $30-40,000 level, he will then go all-in.
Furthermore, renowned trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio and Formula News founder Vida recently stated that they bought the dip, but both announced on February 1st that they have hedged and sold to exit.
