Analysis: Bitcoin Short-Term Offers Buying Opportunity, Market May Enter Surrender Phase if Current Support Level is Breached

BlockBeats News, January 30th, CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV discussed the post-halving analysis of Bitcoin around the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator. Since early 2024, despite Bitcoin's price hitting new all-time highs above $100,000 from around $40,000, the adjusted SOPR indicator has shown a completely different picture: a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This divergence reveals key information about investor behavior. Every time Bitcoin hits a new price peak, holders are taking profits earlier and earlier, indicating a gradual weakening of faith in each bull run.

MorenoDV stated that the market is currently at a crucial turning point. The aSOPR consistently respects a descending channel. Each touch of the channel's upper bound corresponds to a local price top, while a touch of the lower bound corresponds to a local bottom. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of this descending channel in extreme fear, with approximately 1/3 of the total supply in unrealized losses. Historically, this condition (aSOPR below 1.0 + a large amount of unrealized losses) typically sets up a tactical buying opportunity before a short-term rebound. However, the market is now at a crossroads. If the current support level is breached, and other technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, the market will enter a capitulation phase.