Fed Chair Nominee Sees Dramatic Reversal of Fortune as Kevin Warsh Nomination Probability Surges to 81%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, after Trump announced that he would reveal the final nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair tonight in Beijing time, the nomination probabilities of each candidate experienced the ultimate reversal. The previously frontrunner, Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock Global Income, saw his nomination probability plummet from a high point of over 60% to 11%. Kevin Warsh's nomination probability surged to 81%, Christopher Waller's nomination probability is about 4%, and the probabilities of other candidates are less than 1%, equivalent to an early exit.

Last week, during his speech at the Davos Forum, Trump mentioned that the new Federal Reserve Chair is a "respected male." If being respected is understood as having professional prestige, mainstream recognition, and political acceptability in Wall Street, policy circles, and academia, Kevin Warsh, as a former Fed governor, better fits this requirement. Rick Rieder, on the other hand, seems more like someone "respected in the market" but not quite like someone who is "formally accepted by the central bank system."

Furthermore, Kevin Warsh also has an unusual father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, the current chairman of the Estée Lauder Companies, who is also a long-time close friend of Trump.

---------------------------------

See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot

See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN