glassnode: Bitcoin's short-term support is at $83.4k, spot and ETF demand recovery is key to stabilization

BlockBeats News, January 29th, glassnode published its weekly report stating that Bitcoin continues to consolidate near structurally important on-chain levels, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. The condition of short-term holders remains weak, as shown in the chart below, the lower bound of the current compression range (-1 standard deviation) is at $83,400. This level is a recent key support level, and if breached, it could lead to further price retracement towards the true market value near $80,700.

However, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized. ETF selling pressure has eased, spot market positions show initial signs of improvement, especially in the offshore market, indicating a reemergence of buyer interest. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained, with neutral funding suggesting low market leverage and less price impact from speculative momentum.

Options positioning adjustments reinforce this cautious stance. Skew has turned bearish, short-term protection pricing has increased, and traders' gamma values have fallen below zero, increasing the possibility of sharp price swings during periods of market volatility.

Next, the key to market direction lies in whether demand from the spot and ETF channels can be sustained. Continuous positive capital inflows and stronger spot buying will support the trend continuation, while ongoing fragility and rising downside hedging demand make the market susceptible to further consolidation or a deeper pullback.