「Fed's Dot Plot」: Labor Market May Be Key Clue for Future Rate Cuts

BlockBeats News, January 29th, "Fed's Whisperer" Nick Timiraos' latest article: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as scheduled and did not specify when it might resume rate cuts. In December projections, 12 out of 19 officials expected at least one more rate cut this year to be appropriate.

The answer depends on which of the following scenarios comes first: a breakdown in the labor market or a convincing return of inflation to the 2% target.

Neither of these has occurred since December. Job growth has slowed significantly, but the unemployment rate remains stable. Inflation data has become murky due to the statistical interruption caused by the government shutdown. If the labor market does not weaken further, the next rate cut may have to wait until after Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May of this year. (Golden Finance)